Wordy rappinghood

17Jul08

It’s official:  President Bush has ordered State Department Undersecretary William Burns to attend the ongoing “P5+1″ (US, UK, Russia, China, France and Germany)  negotiations with EU diplomat Javier Solana and Iran’s Saeed Jalili in Geneva.  On Thursday, Burns met with Solana to prepare for the weekend conference.

There is great speculation that the participation of Burns represents an about-face for the US and a quiet victor of Secretary of State Rice over the Cheney faction, which up to now has convinced Bush to resist any participation in face to face talks.  But according to others in the State Department,  Burns “is there to listen, not to negotiate,” but his presence at the table meets a long-standing demand from Iran to have the United States involved. 

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday the Bush administration’s decision to break with past policy and send a top diplomat to weekend talks with an Iranian envoy proves the international community is united in trying to eliminate threats from the Iranian nuclear program.

It is true that this will be the first official attendance at a nuclear negotiating session with Iran by an American diplomat in years.  But Burns has been a consistent critic of Tehran, and it remains to be seen whether this will constitute a genuine breakthrough or simply an agreement on the shape of the table.  Recall too the “shuttle diplomacy” preceding the 2003 war that was simply window-dressing for the Invasion of Iraq. 

The UK’s Financial Times is more hopeful:

It was, as a senior European official said yesterday, “a courageous and substantial gesture” for the US to reverse its long-standing position and send William Burns, the state department’s third ranking official, to talks this weekend with Iran over its disputed nuclear programme.

The world has long known that the US is ready to use sticks in its efforts to stop Iran from nuclear enrichment. But Mr Burns’ presence with his counterparts in Geneva shows Washington supports the generous carrots being offered to encourage Tehran to stop the programme. The ball is now very firmly in the Iranian court. The package of international economic support, security guarantees and help with its civilian nuclear programme now on offer is one that Tehran should embrace.

RAND corporation report

The U.S. Air Force engaged the RAND corporation to assess the political and economic effects of various straegies directed to Iran.  RAND is best remembered for its Vietnam War bean-counting during the Vietnam War favored by Secretary of Defense McNamara. 

RAND concluded in its voluminous report that little good would come from military action, and the existing regime would be strengthened.  The report can be found here.

Filed under: Iran's foreign relations   |  Leave a Comment